Let’s face it, for soccer fans, all international breaks are painful. The pain is only intensified when there are almost back to back breaks in the early fall. These brutal breaks reduce the soccer fan to turn to other sports that they have had very little interest in for a bridge to get from one weekend to the next. For example, baseball is slogging through its playoffs. Did anyone watch the Washington Nationals beat the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 2 of the championship series? I am sure the ratings were sky high for that one. Though I did watch part of this game and I wondered why there were so many empty seats in Busch Stadium for a play-off game in St. Louis, but I digress (as usual). There was college football galore on Saturday and the NFL on Sunday, but to the soccer fan watching this it feels as empty as Dippy the Pirate Bear’s soul and bank account on Monday. He said that he does a lot of “entertaining” on the weekends and his Venmo account does not seem to work like its supposed to. Dippy does not like the international break either as he called me on Saturday afternoon from a tattoo parlor in Norfolk, Virginia slurring incoherently asking for the lyrics for an Aboriginal rain dance.
For the truly addicted soccer junkie there was the Euro 2020 qualifying. There is nothing better than doing a deep dive on Kazakhstan – Cyprus and Latvia – Poland. The only reason why I watched any Euro qualifiers was to just to watch soccer hoping something interesting would happen like maybe a live tiger being released onto the pitch to chase after random players. I would put my money on the tiger winning that match-up. What I did discover was that the big Euro teams have either qualified for or are very close to qualifying for the tournament next year, so drama was limited there. I will admit that I watched Northern Ireland almost knock off the Netherlands up until each team remembered who they were.
However, soccer teams and cities do need a break even when fans don’t want one.
Manchester, England is one huge example of a soccer mad city that needed this international break badly as both west and east Manchester are both burning brightly in red and blue flames. Manchester United and Manchester City came off horrifically bad losses that led their respective fan bases to repeatedly bash the panic button in the same way as Dippy clicks the “Buy” icon when ordering a new supply of rabbit food, asparagus, and cat toys. Both teams needed a break. Their managers needed a break. Their fans needed a break. This break was an opportunity for everyone involved to think more objectively about their team and come up with a more reasoned idea of what to expect next and to put out their respective dumpster fires.
Manchester United currently stands in 12th place in the Premier League. They have nine points in eight league games. This is their worst start of a season since 1989. I was in my first year in college living in a dorm room where one of my roommates was putting tin foil on the wall and put a curtain up in the middle of the room to keep the beams from the head lights from impacting his pharmacy studies. Dippy the Pirate Bear was not even born. United has scored nine goals in eight league matches. They awarded the goal of the month of September to a penalty kick. They are closer to relegation than to the mythical top four. They have not won a road match since March which was a fake orgasm that led to Ole sticking to the wheel. Sorry, really bad joke. Their current rap sheet of criminal offenses on and off the pitch is longer than the Joker’s.
To put this misery in its context, United has only finished the season outside of European qualifying (currently below 6th) one time in the Premier League era. That year, 2013-14, they finished 7th in David Moyes first full season in charge after God….err….Sir Alex retired. They are very much in danger of a worse finish this season. Their current league, domestic cup, and European cup form is relegation worthy with just two goals in their last five matches. Their xG in their last four league games was 1.1, 1.0, 1.2, and 0.7. The last four games were not a murder’s row of PL sides: Leicester, West Ham, Arsenal, and Newcastle. The last game against Newcastle, a team that is a worse dumpster fire than United, defied all expectations and enhanced fan’s deepest fears that the situation was indeed much worse than what was believed. Most fans were confident that United would beat Newcastle and for them to watch them show as much creativity as six-day old meatloaf that has been sitting in the sun was more than they could tolerate. It was like binge watching the last season of ‘Miami Vice’ (not the movie) and ‘The Leftovers’ on an endless loop.
The reaction was inevitable. Fans saw their beloved team lose to a relegation team and come to face with the fact that their team is also a relegation team. The fans have pointed to three areas of blame. One, the players. More specifically, due to injuries and lack of depth, the quality of players on the pitch in the positions they are playing are far below expectations. Anthony Martial, who has the best npxXG + xA/90 minute (non-penalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes) on the team, has only played three league games. Paul Pogba, 2nd best npxG + xA/90 minutes, is also injured and in Dubai working out for Real Madrid. Marcus Rashford got injured being a striker, which he is not suited for, and hits all his free kicks into the stands – all of them. Luke Shaw and Aaron Wan-Bissaka have also been out of action, which has led to Ashley Young starting in the backline, which is now a disaster waiting to pee on the expensive china. After Pogba, there are no quality PL mid-fielders. Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez, at minimum, could have provided more depth in the front, but they are in Milan and there have been no replacements.
The second area that blame is being directed toward is at Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. His critics (including myself) consider him to be too inexperienced, unimaginative, fearful, and naïve to be the manager at a team the size and scope of Manchester United. Cousin Ole is your favorite creepy cousin at the family holiday party. He smiles and is grossly positive until it gets dark. After dark, the smile and naivete after multiple Zimas and cheese crackers is just weird. His tactics are designed as if he is in a horror movie being chased by a dude in a clown outfit. He has not shown the man management skills and emotional intelligence to make tactical changes and keep the dressing room. Cousin Ole is so married to the past (as most fans are) that he wants to re-live it like ‘Back to the Future.’ He is dealing with professional footballers in 2019 rather than in 1999. He must learn to adapt to managing 2019 players and Manchester United is not the place where learning is supported.
The third area of blame are the Glazers and the team’s German prison guard, Ed Woodward. The team still has over $200 million in debt wrapped up in the declining value of the team. The stock price is down 24% for the year and falling. The Glazers have taken over $1 billion out of the team since they took over. Ed Woodward has overseen signing the players and the managers. Since he started, United has not come close to winning the league. His expertise is in business, which admittedly, he does reasonably well. He is not a sporting or football director which has resulted in wasting vast amounts of money on horrific player signings and expensive high-priced managers who have not been adequately supported. What the Glazers have failed to realize and never will is the fact that (a) customers will abandon a bad product and Manchester United is a consumable product and (b) they are ultimately responsible for the actions of the players, staff, and coaches. For a reference point, the Glazers own the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the last time they made the play-offs was in 2007.
There are some areas of hope buried in the numbers for Manchester United that seem to indicate that they are not as bad as they seem. United is third in the Premier League in xPTS (expected points) behind City and Liverpool. They are also top in the league in xGA (expected goals against) at 6.3 goals. United is fourth in PL in xGDiff (expected goal difference) and sixth in xG. So far, the results on the pitch have not matched these metrics, however, if the performance starts to match these numbers then maybe the deep fear of possible relegation can drift away….maybe.
Manchester City is in panic mode as well as they are a burning dumpster of hot blue flames. At the near empty Etihad Stadium, they had their worst performance of the year as their biggest weaknesses of their fashion icon manager, Pep Guardiola, were brought to bear. Against the Wolves, City had an xG of 1.3, their worst by far for the season. The pairing of Nicholas Otamendi and Fernandinho in the central defense failed miserably under the force of quality counter strikes by a quality mid-table PL team that specialized in that plan. The fact that Otamendi likes to try tackles with no back-up support does not do his manager any favors. The fact that City were sloppy in the mid-field with their passes leading to careless turnovers and lacked recovery pace in the central mid-field and backline also doomed them against an opportunistic team such as Wolverhampton. The result was a 2-0 loss as Adama Traore, who looks like he should be a swing back for the New Orleans Saints, outran everyone for two late goals.
The loss puts a fan base that has gotten used to City being on top or near the top into a panic. They sit in 2nd in the league, but behind by eight points to a streaking Liverpool side. They have suffered two losses and one draw so far this season, which considering Liverpool’s streak and the fact that they only lost once last season, puts a sheen of L.A. smog on their league title hopes. City has been using a patchwork defensive backline since the loss for at least most of the season of their best defensive player, center back Aymeric Laporte, on August 31st. Another center back, John Stones, suffered a muscle injury on September 17th and is due back in a couple of weeks. Vincent Kompany left for Belgium in the summer and his absence in the dressing room as a leader and captain has been sorely missed. This leaves only two true center backs available on the squad, Otamendi and eighteen-year-old Eric Garcia who has been promoted from City’s U23 side. Fernandinho is a defensive midfielder and is out of position at center back. There is an overall lack of depth, pace, and experience in the defensive back line and in the mid-field. This has created a tactical dilemma for Pep Guardiola as his strategy is prone to tactical counters even when everyone is healthy.
Despite two straight PL titles, earning 198 league points, and multiple domestic trophies in the last two years, City fan Twitter and Instagram started the first calls for #PepOut. Their argument was that his intense drive towards ultimate perfection after three full seasons has started to lose the dressing room like if you listened to Madonna’s ‘True Blue’ while watching Manchester United play in a Europa League group stage match repeatedly for 500 hours. Fan critics in City Twitterland also point to the even more plausible idea that Pep’s tactics have been unlocked and solved so that the effectiveness of them is now questionable even when he has the best players that oil money can buy. Furthermore, Pep’s shelf life has been no longer than four seasons in one place before he needs to be detoxed from football and re-plugged into the world outside of football in New York City, only to be dragged in again mafia style for another a big club. Assistant Manager, Mikel Arteta, has been his partner on the bench and multiple people have suggested that he is being groomed to take over the team after Pep goes on a wine sabbatical. The only wrinkle in this is that Pep recently signed an extension through next season.
Guardiola will need to adjust tactically in the short and long term given the players he must work with. This has been often difficult for him in the past as he has felt and stated repeatedly that his biggest mistakes have occurred when he has made drastic changes brought on by the players which compromised his original theoretical designs. He may also need to consider playing much younger players in order to fill in gaps and give them needed experience. He has been extremely hesitant to do so. Fan Twitter has been calling for Eric Garcia to get some playing time at center back over Otamendi and for months they have been asking why phenom Phil Foden isn’t getting more playing time even though Pep constantly praises his immense talent and that he would not sell him for even “400 million pounds.” Gaurdiola’s greatest strength is to stay relentlessly true to his virtues. Guardiola’s greatest weakness is to stay relentlessly true to his virtues.
Panic often is irrational and based not on objective facts. City fan’s panic may fall into this category. John Stones is scheduled to return to action in a couple of weeks. Manchester City is first in the league in xG, xGDiff (expected goal differential), and xPTS by significant margins over Liverpool despite the eight-point advantage. They have significant resources and a transfer window coming. In Pep’s second season they got Laporte which sealed their backline during another injury crisis and eventually sealed the deal in the league. They have two matches left with Liverpool and there are still thirty matches remaining in the season. If City’s results on the pitch start to match their analytics, then it is likely that the gap will start to shrink.
The panic in Manchester United’s fanbase is objectively real. They have a naïve and inexperienced manager that has lost the dressing room, an injury crisis with no real solution, no leaders in the dressing room or on the pitch, their best player is playing for Real Madrid while nursing an injury in Dubai still under contract for United, their youth rebuild plan will take years, resources have been squandered, and the team is still owned by the Glazers. It is more likely than not that United’s nuclear and medical waste dumpster fire will reach Wanda Nara/Mauro Icardi level drama.
This weekend United plays the league leaders, Liverpool at Old Trafford and City plays at spunky Crystal Palace. By next Monday, Manchester may still be on fire or may just be smoldering.
Author: Keith Lisenbee, mental health professional, writer, and soccer enthusiast is from Atlanta, Georgia by way of Virginia. I was in love with soccer until Agüero destroyed my soul and Manchester United's title hopes in 2012. I came back for the World Cup in 2014 and through the use of DVR, I am back with the force of orange Tic Tacs and IPAs covering the EPL, Bundesliga, MLS, and La Liga. You can follow me on Twitter @keith_lisenbee and Instagram @lisenbeekeith got more random soccer thoughts.