Ask Us Anything!!! Mailbag No. 1 – The Return of Mourinho

Dippy the Pirate Bear and I get asked many questions especially after columns get posted.  This international break was no exception.  These questions come from DMs on social media, run-ins at the office, on the bus, at the gym, and in bathroom stalls at bars.  Depending on time and location (I never answer questions in a bar restroom) we will take some time to answer them or pretend that whoever asked the question did not exist – much like our political environment.   For this week, after a hiatus and at the end of the last international break for awhile we decided to answer some of these questions in more detail.  There are some questions that we are choosing not to answer because it may result in some form of legal ramifications for Dippy and I.  So here goes.

Question:  What do you think about Tottenham firing Pochettino?

Me:  If you think about it no one should really be surprised by Mauricio Pochettino being sacked.  The actual timing of it may be a bit surprising given it happened at the end of the break, but there seems to be an explanation for that as well.  Simply put, the results simply were not there for the last many months.   As many have pointed out, Spurs in the PL had been in “relegation form” for quite a while.  Their run of form since winning their first league match, 3-1 at home to Crystal Palace, was as follows: draw, draw, loss, draw, loss, win, loss, win, draw, loss, draw.   That’s eleven points in eleven matches.  What was worse was that there were multiple bad beats where they drew or lost to substandard opponents.  There is absolutely no shame in losing by a goal to Liverpool (everyone loses by a goal to Liverpool unless you are City and in that case you lose by two) and drawing against City.  However, drawing against Everton, Sheffield United, and Watford while also scoring one goal in each match while losing to Brighton and Newcastle (shut out in both matches) was unbearable.   So much for free flowing attacking play resulting in goals.  Goal chances were not there either.  Their xG in the last five PL matches was 1.51, 0.24, 1.35, 0.89, and 0.48.  It is obvious that Spurs chairman, Daniel Levy, absolutely needs Champions League football for business reasons and being in 14th place in mid-November after such a horrible recent run of form was not getting the club anywhere close to that goal.  Not to mention an embarrassing 7-2 group stage loss to Bayern at home which basically solidified what was the worse kept secret in London.  That secret being that Poch had lost his team.  Something had to happen and now. 

Dippy:  That dude lost his team because he did not want to be there anymore.  His own shelf life, he even knew was at the end.  Poch wanted to quit if Spurs won the Champions League final.  That would have been an awesome way to go out.  However, they did not win so he ran off to sulk in Barcelona rather than going back to London with the team.  This flex upset Levy and it sent a signal amid the noise that he was mentally and physically exhausted and had nothing left to give.  For Mauricio (as with most intense managers), this happens after every season, but after five seasons and coming so close to holding up a trophy the end-of-year exhaustion was much worse.  In the book “Brave New World: Inside Pochettino’s Spurs” which chronicled Poch’s 2016-17 season in very intimate detail, Mauricio wrote the following at the end:

“I left the door open for a year.  The need for intimacy is demanding that I close it again – the wind is blowing in.  But I feel that over the course of this journey, we have got to know each other a bit more.”

Though this quote appeared to be directed by Poch to the book’s author, it is not hard to imagine that this is what happened for him after each season.  The past season for the Spurs, with the roller coaster ride of great comeback wins followed by a devastating loss in the final was so incredibly emotional and deeply exhausting for this introspective manager as his world was exposed more so than ever.   He needed to “close it again” after losing in Madrid.   This summer was not a long enough sabbatical.  His battery too drained.  Pochettino came back and his locus of control was leaning towards the external as he blamed everyone for everything which led to him alienating everyone especially his team and his boss.  The end was inevitable. 

Poch1.jpg

Question:  How will Jose Mourinho do as Spur’s new gaffer?

Me:  This is hard for me.  Jose has managed my least favorite PL club and also had a crazy run in Manchester with United.   I still think that he is a great tactician, which is a trait that no one does not lose unless they are unwilling to change.  He is great drama.  He is a diva in all forms.  I love him as a tactical manager.  I do not love the diva drama and the constant reliance on conspiracy theories and other things outside of his control to explain things that happen to him and the club he manages.  When managers start falling into an external locus of control mindset in which they believe that things that occur in the environment are the main protagonists of their lives and they have no agency to affect it, then it’s a problem.  Jose has lived that for much of his career and that has been his downfall as its so irritating to everyone around him.  It grows old quick.  For today’s top level football players, this type of management style just does not work in the long term.  They have money, which means options.  These options play out in who has more “power” in the dressing room.  It is much easier for unhappy top level players to “strike” and eventually leave a situation that they do not like.  As a result, gaffers have to manage these players in a much more conciliatory manner.  The “Special One” has not shown the ability to this with nuance and flexibility.  Players of today prioritize values differently now, which runs counter to Mourinho’s message of external locus of control.  I do not see this changing now.  So, no, I do not think that he will do well in North London in the long run.  I predict that inevitable bump, but I do not expect it to last long. 

Dippy:  It will be fun watching Jose’s press conferences.  It will be fun watching him on the sidelines throwing water bottles around and making hand gestures or even going after another club’s low level staff member.  I am looking forward to the drama show that he brings, but this does not necessarily equate to long term success.   In order for this experiment to work out and it definitely is an experiment in motivational change, Mourinho needs to makes some significant changes over the long term. 

Humans (which also includes football coaches) typically change when several things occur.  One of those things is that they understand in their hearts and their minds that change is necessary and wanted.  There are stages of change.  The first stage has been where the Special One has been stuck in since his last years in Chelsea.  That stage is pre-contemplative.   In this stage, one doesn’t even conceive that there is a problem that requires behavioral change.   Mourinho ran through his last years in Chelsea and his entire tenure at United in this stage.  Regardless of what happened around him, he refused to acknowledge that his conspiracy theories, throwing players under the bus, and undermining his bosses were getting him closer and closer to a pink slip.  The second stage is the contemplative stage where someone starts thinking that “maybe” there is an issue and “maybe” I need to so something about it.  This step leads (hopefully) to the preparation stage when an individual starts taking the needed actions that will lead to taking some sort of substantive action towards change.  It is possible that the new Spurs coach has been doing that during his hiatus while commentating on PL matches for Sky Sports.  One hopes that he was able to convey this preparation in his interview with the chairman.  The fourth step is taking action.   That is when the person actually makes the changes that they intend to make to resolve the issue.  So far, Mourinho has said the right things to the players and to the press.   Everyone should be skeptical because he has not even managed a match with his new club and had the sting of losing to Pep or Jurgen, yet.  Crisis and setbacks always challenge the action taker at this stage.  The final stage is the maintenance stage where the person has started to make the changes second nature.   I am sure Spurs fans and Daniel Levy hope that Mourinho makes it to this stage.   I have to say that I am skeptical.  If you were told that you had to give up something that you do every day without question immediately, how would you respond?   Would you change?   Would you even want to?  

 

Question:   Will Pochettino coach again this season?

Me:  No.  I really hope not.   He really needs for his sanity to take some significant time off and ask himself whether he even wants to manage again and under what circumstances.   These will be very important questions to answer as his agent’s phone started ringing five minutes after he got the sack.  In order to not jump into a potentially bad situation for himself he needs answers to these questions.  The proper analogy is when someone is coming out of a serious break-up after a long-term relationship.  Do rebound relationships work?   Typically, no. 

Dippy:   I agree.   I know all about rebound relationships because I do that every night.  It is good for me, but so is the money and fancy watches that my clients leave for me.   For football managers and other folks, it’s probably soul crushing.  I am numb so it does not matter to me anymore.   I spend my nights snorting orange Tic Tacs through paper straws because I am trying to save the planet. 

 

Question:   Where will Pochettino coach next after his sabbatical?

Dippy:   LAFC.

Me:  No, he is never going to coach in MLS until he is ready to retire.   The MLS is only a retirement league anyways or a place to resurrect your career and move back to where you came from.   Mauricio will probably end up at a mid-major team in La Liga.  He probably has a clause in his severance agreement that he will not manage in England for a year so that will rule out him going to Manchester United who had wanted him a year ago.   They are on a weird plan anyways with Cousin Ole so I am not sure what is on their radar.

 

Question:   My car is nearly 15 years old and has 183,000 miles on it, should I get a new car?

Me:  I assume that your car still runs.  If so and even if it isn’t, you must ask yourself these key questions.  First, do you have the money to spend on getting another car?  If the answer is no then I would suggest that buying a car is not an option when you need to do more physiologically important things like eating and having some form of shelter.  If you do have the money available, then you have to ask whether you value the new car over the money that you have pay to obtain it.   Another question might be whether you value a car repair to get it running better more so than the money it would take to get the repairs completed.   Provided that you have money to trade, then the question becomes which you value more:  the new car or the money you will need to spend for the one you pick.   One should never make a sacrifice in any trade and buying things is a trade.  If you pay for something that is of less value to you than the money you paid for it then it is a sacrifice which should be avoided. 

Dippy:  Just get a new car.   Having a car that is over 183,000 miles old makes you completely lost in this world.  You definitely need a new car.   I mean with a car like that people just look at you and think that you are a Watford fan.  Do you want that?   No?   Then get the new car.   Buy the respect of people who don’t care about you even though in your mind you think they do because they laugh at your old car. 

 

Question:   I hate VAR.  Do you think VAR wants Liverpool to win the Premier League this year and is against Manchester City?

Me:  This is an important question even though it sounds really crazy.   The fact that this question is even being asked speaks to two things.   First, that the implementation of VAR in the Premier League has been an absolute disaster so far.   It is incredibly inconsistent in its application and the decisions that have been made as a result of its use.  I do not understand why they will not allow, like in other leagues, for the referee to go to the sideline and view for themselves what happened.  Instead we have a nameless faceless person in a booth somewhere making decisions on the pitch.  Its virtually insane.  Secondly, because of the faceless nature of VAR’s implementation so far in England it seems that VAR is actually taking on a human form that is independent of anything else.  It also assumes that VAR in human form is favoring one team over another for some apparent rational reason.  Or that the people using VAR are using it to make decisions that favor one club over another.  These are conspiracy theories and they are dangerous and are in most instances disconnected from reality.

Let’s look at the match between Manchester City and Liverpool as an example.  Liverpool did not win that match against City because of VAR not ruling that hand ball against Trent Alexander-Arnold in the third minute.  They won because they converted their chances at goals and the club in hot blue kits did not.  Liverpool’s xG for that match was 1.33 while City’s was 1.48.   Fabinho hit an absolute incredible goal in the fifth minute immediately after the no-call on the hand ball.  The xG on that shot was 0.02.  Liverpool went up 1-0 in the match early on a chance that had little chance at actually resulting in a goal.   It was a chance that was converted on an incredible shot.  Seven minutes later, Salah scores on a header to make it 2-0.  The xG on that chance was 0.18.  After 12 minutes, Liverpool scored two stunning goals on very low probability chances.  Game, set, and match.   The thing is that Liverpool has been doing this all season.  They have the talent on the pitch week after to week to convert improbable chances into goals.  VAR did not cause Man City to lose that match.   Liverpool’s ability to convert chances into goals did.   For Pep Guardiola to focus any attention on VAR and the referees is dangerous for his club.   It suggests a locus of control that is external and that his club can do nothing against the mystical forces aligned against them.  It might be a rallying cry, but in the end, it is demoralizing to modern footballers.  What is hurting City is injuries and lack of depth in defense crossed with their manager’s style of play that is vulnerable to counter attacks.  What is also hurting Man City is that Pep’s intense message is becoming just noise to his player and his signal is lost in it. 

Dippy:   First off, I will admit that I am a City supporter.   Pep is a god.   I mean capital G-O-D, god.  It must be said that everyone who is not a City fan hates us.   Everyone.   We are the evil empire.  They all say that we got all these trophies from oil money in the Middle East.  So, as it is in human nature people hate us because we are beautiful.  They hate us because we are great.   They hate us because we win.   They hate us because we have the best coach in the world, and we can get the best players in every position.  So, do I believe that people higher up are against us?   Absolutely.   Yes, people want us to lose and will use everything in their power to defeat us.   I get it.  I understand.  If I were them, I would do the same thing.  In fact, when City was awful and slumming it in the Championship I wanted United and Chelsea to burn in hell.  So, I get the hate.   However, at the end of the day, City are the defending champions and on paper they are still the best team in the League.  I expect that they will have one of those runs where they win a million matches in a row.  They have done it year after year so I expect they will do it again.  Just watch.  Just watch.  Come at me, bruh.   COME AT ME, BRUH!!!   C’MON!!!   PUT THAT STICK DOWN!!!

handball1.jpg

Question:  Liverpool has a substantial lead in the Premier League.  Do you think that it’s their year to finally win a League trophy for the first time in a thousand years?

Me:  In looking at the numbers, I still have a hard time saying that Liverpool is the best team in the Premier League.  Manchester City leads the PL in xPTS (expected points), xGDiff (expected goal differential), and xG by huge margins.  Yet, due to injuries to key players, the loss of their long-time captain, overconfidence, and the fact that Pep’s message getting lost in all the noise, they have lost three league games.  Meanwhile, Liverpool has not had any significant injuries to anyone except their goalie, is third in the Premier League in their ability to convert goal chances (only Leicester and Tottenham are better), and they have yet to lose a match in league play.  It is not likely that this run that Jurgen Klopp’s club is on will continue throughout the remaining months.  I expect that both top clubs will start to perform closer to the mean which will result in the gap diminishing.  If I were to have a power ranking of the top five EPL teams right now I would have, in order:  City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United, and Everton.  Yes, I know that Everton is below Spurs, but they are much better than the results have shown so far on the pitch.  I also believe that their manager, Marco Silva. should be the next manager sacked for the reason I just mentioned. 

Dippy:  Liverpool will bottle it again.  They are completely cursed when it comes to the League.  I am sure something weird will happen and they will drop points for stupid reasons.  The finish line is so far off there is no way they can go through the season without a loss in the league.  Klopp will commit some type of human resources violation involving a water bottle or worse and then the ensuing investigation will consume him.  Remember that Guardiola is a god and he can make the magic happen.  He will use his powers to get his team to win 16 matches in a row or something like he has always done.  If City lose the league to Liverpool, then I will smoke a blunt through the skull of James Garner. 

Question:  My wife wants us to get a cat.  I don’t like cats because they are inherently evil.  Should I relent and get a cat or get a PS4 instead?

Dippy:  Have an affair.  From what I have seen in the security monitors and the “registry” for my suite at the fancy Virginia Beach oceanfront hotel I work at, she is already is having one.  This will resolve the cat issue for good.

Me:  Um, Dippy, we really need to talk about confidentiality.  Ummm.   So, the question is best answered by answering this question:  Do you value your wife’s happiness over your dislike of cats and wanting a PS4?   Another question to consider is what objective evidence do you have that supports the claim that cats are “inherently evil?”  I am waiting.  If you value a PS4 or your evil cat theory over your wife’s happiness, then guess what?   Do not get a cat.  That would be a sacrifice and that is demoralizing to your life. 

Dippy:  I have “objective” evidence of….

Me:  Look, you drunk insolent bear, just settle down.  Settle down.

Dippy:   Boomer, ok. 

Me:  Next question.

Dippy:  Boomer, ok.

 

Question:  Which Bundesliga club has surprised you the most so far this season?

Me:  Dortmund by a mile.  I was with a joint Bayern and BVB supporters club watch party in Atlanta for Der Klassiker.  It was an absolute disaster and it was a manifestation of everything that is wrong in Dortmund right now.  The Allianz Arena has been a complete house of pain for years and this time around was no exception.  Bayern’s xG was 3.91 and Dortmund’s was 0.61.  Then there’s this:

dortmund1.jpg

These are the number of chances each club had during the match.   After the first goal, Der BVB completely capitulated.  Their manager, Lucien Favre, was trying to rally them to fight, but to no avail.   No one was listening because they had mentally given up after 16 minutes.  16 minutes.  Jadon Sancho was pulled before half-time due to bad form, injury, and/or lack of interest.  As I watched this, listening to well meaning taunting Bayern supporter’s, Dortmund’s play reminded me of this:

sith1.png

 

They had so much hope going into season.  Die Schwarzgelben had added players for more depth and leadership over the summer.  They were going into year two of the Favre era.   Jadon Sancho entering a “transfer season” where he is a year older and could show off for any potential suitors back home in England.  Der BVB was also the sexy pick to knock off the evil empire in Munich.  Instead, the club on the pitch lack tactical identity, functional leadership, and motivation.  People have talked about mentality being an issue.  I disagree.  It’s an identity issue.   The club does not know what it wants to be on the field and off.  The murmurs from the club, the players, and their manager all come from totally different scripts.  Der BVB needs to determine what the tangible and intangible things they want to value and in what priority.  Once they figure that out then they can decide if their current manager and roster of players are the right people to help them reach those values. 

Dippy:  I will keep this quick.  I have an “appointment” (making air quotes with his paws).  Freiburg.   They should be at the bottom of the table hanging out with Paderborn making plans to play St. Pauli next season.  Instead, they keep coming up with results.   Do you want to talk about mentality?  That club on the pitch fights for everything they get.  It does not matter who they are playing they are looking for the result.  They are fourth in the table right now.  That is shocking.  I’m out.

 

Question:  In your last column, you wrote about Robert Enke’s death by suicide and how suicide affected your life.  How difficult was it to get past the grief of Adriane’s death by suicide?

Me:  Good question.  In all seriousness, I like to have a laugh at football because its entertainment.  Its fun.  However, football does mirror life itself and in life there is death.  Suicide is very serious and not even professional football is immune.  To answer the question, it was quite difficult.   At first, there was tremendous guilt.  Most survivors of suicide experience huge guilt over the loss of a loved one by suicide.  There are so many questions around whether if I had done things differently would Adriane still be alive or whether I contributed to her depression and social disconnection.  These are normal questions for survivors.  You must conclude that it’s not your fault.  You did not cause this nor can you cure it.  You must get over the guilt.  The guilt keeps you holding on way too long.  It’s painful.  For me, it took literally years.   Then I figured out how to let the guilt go.  Once I did, I completed the grief process.  Saturday, November 23rd is International Survivors of Suicide Loss Day which was created for survivors to help cope with the loss of a loved one to suicide.  The American Foundation for Suicide Prevention sponsors the day in the United States.  They can be reached through this link (www.afsp.org).  Again, the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline is available 24/7 if you or a loved one is in a crisis that may lead to suicide.  They can be reached toll-free at 1-800-273-TALK (8255).

Author: Keith Lisenbee, mental health professional, writer, and soccer enthusiast is from Atlanta, Georgia by way of Virginia. I was in love with soccer until Agüero destroyed my soul and Manchester United's title hopes in 2012. I came back for the World Cup in 2014 and through the use of DVR, I am back with the force of orange Tic Tacs and IPAs covering the EPL, Bundesliga, MLS, and La Liga. You can follow me on Twitter @keith_lisenbee and Instagram @lisenbeekeith got more random soccer thoughts.